How committed are we? Why the Copenhagen Treaty should keep the current 5-year commitment period June 2009

The Kyoto Protocol is based on commitment periods instead of single target years. The first 5-year commitment period is 2008-12. In the lead-up to the Copenhagen Climate Summit, countries are negotiating the second commitment period, which starts in 2013 and should run until 2018. However, some countries are now discussing the idea of extending the length of those commitment periods including, for example, one commitment period from 2013-2020. While no real rationale for an extension is being offered, there are a number of very strong reasons why the commitment periods should be kept the same. Targets and actions could not be adjusted to reflect latest science The IPCC 5th assessment report (AR5) will be published in 2013 and 2014, and is very likely to paint an even more alarming and urgent picture of the climate crisis, leading to calls for greater emissions reductions. The current 5-year commitment periods mean that publication of the AR5 will coincide with the start of negotiations for the third commitment period (2018-2022), allowing for adjustment of the targets and actions (of all big emitters) accordingly. For example, 8-year commitment periods would mean it would take a further six years before countries could act on the new science in the AR5. The overall level o...